Your Spring Training Rotation

By Jim Breen from Bernie's Crew.

Per Tom Haudricourt, Ken Macha has unveiled his rotation for Cactus League games -- which will begin Wednesday against Oakland.

RHP Jeff Suppan
RHP Yovani Gallardo
LHP Manny Parra
RHP Braden Looper
RHP Dave Bush

Milwaukee's new manager did stress that this may not be the order for his starting rotation in the regular season.  There is an off-day late in camp that would allow Macha to realign his starters as he wishes before Opening Day.

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With that said, however, Tom Haudricourt believes this could very well be Milwaukee's Opening Day rotation.  

Macha has already stated that Yovani Gallardo will not be the #1 starter to begin the season.  The young right-hander only has 134.1 big league innings under his belt.  The Brewers skipper does not want Yo to endure the pressure of consistently throwing against the league's top pitchers.

I completely understand that.  While Yovani is the best pitcher wearing a Brewers uniform, the young man does not need to be thrown into the fire.  The Brewers have three other veteran starters who can easily bear the brunt of facing opposing aces every time out.  Yovani would likely put too much pressure on himself and try toss a shutout every game.  The organization still needs to develop Yovani.  The worst thing the Brewers could do is toss Yovani out against Tim Lincecum and Carlos Zambrano in his first two games in 2009.  Confidence is a fickle thing, and Yovani could easily lose that trying to overpitch against the NL Cy Young winner and a perennial All-Star.

But Jeff Suppan?

Soup is a fine starter for the back-end of the rotation.  After all, his 177.2 inning pitched in 2008 was his lowest total since the 1998 season.  He has a career 4.63 ERA and is a 14-year veteran.  Not to mention he is a great clubhouse guy and a fine member of the community.  His charity efforts throughout Milwaukee have been well-documented.

That is all nice.  Unfortunately, a team's ace must be more than a "decent" or "nice" pitcher.  I know an ace does not necessarily have to have a high strikeout rate, but Suppan only strikes out about 4.5 hitters per nine innings.  I would like an Opening Day pitcher who owns better than a .281 opponent batting average.  Throwing out the rotation's least talented pitcher on Opening Day is not exactly what Brewers fans have in mind or 2009.

I already know the objection.  Ultimately, the slotting of the starting rotation will not matter after the first couple weeks.  Off days will mix up the rotation and Suppan would not be facing ace after ace.

True.

But take the first two weeks, for example.  Jeff Suppan would pitch Opening Day against Tim Lincecum.  Can Milwaukee really be favored in that match-up?  Would Braden Looper or Dave Bush outpitch Lincecum?  Probably not, but the huge gap between Suppan and Lincecum would be closed at least a bit.  In baseball, where inches matter on every pitch, do you not want to give your team every advantage to win every game?

In Macha's current lineup, Suppan would pitch Opening Day and come home to pitch against the Chicago Cubs in the series finale.  I personally do not want Jeff Suppan anywhere near the mound against the Cubs, especially pitching opposite of Carlos Zambrano.  If the Brewers and Cubs are tied in the series one game to one, I do not want Soup pitching to secure the series victory.  I would much rather have Looper or Bush toe the rubber.

Ultimately, the exact lineup of the rotation will not matter in a couple months.  At the beginning of the season, however, it does.  You want to give your team the best chance to start the season on the right foot.  Despite games in August and September having more pressure surrounding them, every game does matter.

Here is how I would line the starting rotation up.

RHP Dave Bush
RHP Yovani Gallardo
RHP Jeff Suppan
RHP Braden Looper
LHP Manny Parra

This is how the pitching matchups would shake out:

April 7 -- Dave Bush (MIL) vs. Tim Lincecum (SF)

April 8 -- Yovani Gallardo (MIL) vs. Matt Cain (SF)

April 9 -- Jeff Suppan (MIL) vs. Randy Johnson (SF)

April 10 -- Ted Lilly (CHC) vs. Braden Looper (MIL)

April 11 -- Sean Marshall (CHC) vs. Manny Parra (MIL)

April 12 -- Carlos Zambrano (CHC) vs. Dave Bush (MIL)

April 13 -- Edinson Volquez (CIN) vs. Yovani Gallardo (MIL)

April 14 -- Bronson Arroyo (CIN) vs. Jeff Suppan (MIL)

Would you rather see Jeff Suppan pitch against Tim Lincecum and Carlos Zambrano to start the season, or Randy Johnson and Bronson Arroyo?  The answer should be obvious.

Dave Bush notoriously has been a slow starter.  He has a career 5.43 ERA in April and 5.44 ERA in May.  With that said, Bush seemed to have found his mechanics and confidence in the second half of 2008.  He began to pound the strike zone more often and struck out more batters.  Admittedly, he did benefit from pretty good luck over the second half of the season, but I would be hard-pressed to find any Brewers fan who would rather see Jeff Suppan and his 4.96 ERA pitch Opening Day over Bush.

As I said before, Ken Macha should give his team every chance to begin the 2009 season on the right foot.  You can certainly not win a division crown in April, but you can fall very far behind.  Dave Bush and his 4.18 ERA from last season present a much better chance for the Brewers to win on Opening Day, as well as in the series finale against the Cubs.  I hope Macha is able to see something in Dave Bush, or even Braden Looper, that would allow either pitcher to supplant Suppan as the current favorite to start on Opening Day.

Jim Breen covers all the important news and rumors concerning the Milwaukee Brewers at his site, Bernie's Crew.