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The trade market may be dormant for the next few months, but the rumors will be sure to pick up by July. Let's run through the deadline trade candidates for 2009. Continue Reading
- Pirates veterans: Adam LaRoche, Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez. The three highest-paid Pirates are all entering their contract years, assuming the 2010 options for Wilson and Sanchez are declined. Wilson was nearly traded during the winter.
- Well-paid Astros: Miguel Tejada, Roy Oswalt, Carlos Lee, Jose Valverde. If the Astros struggle in the first half, perhaps a farm system restocking will be in order. Oswalt is a franchise player with a full no-trade clause, so he'd have to want out to be traded. Lee also has full no-trade rights and is owed $74MM over the next four years. Tejada and Valverde are eligible for free agency after the season, so they're the most likely trade candidates. Valverde, at least, is at the top of his game.
- Boras clients headed for free agency: Adrian Beltre, Matt Holliday, Rick Ankiel, Jarrod Washburn, Xavier Nady. Contrary to popular belief, Boras clients do occasionally forego free agency (Ryan Madson, for example). But usually, they test the market. We've seen in the 2008-09 offseason that compensation draft picks aren't all they're cracked up to be - the Blue Jays may have been better off dealing A.J. Burnett during the summer than taking the Yankees' third-round pick plus a supplemental. Perhaps this will result in increased trading of impending free agents. Of this group, Ankiel seems most likely to go (Colby Rasmus is nipping at his heels).
- Other impending free agents: Troy Glaus, Jermaine Dye, Aubrey Huff, Erik Bedard, Justin Duchscherer. Two variables: the first halves of the players and their teams. A few will throw a wrench into trade talks with no-trade protection.
- Pricey Padres: Brian Giles, Jake Peavy. Both players control their fate with full no-trade rights. Giles has mentioned the Angels, Red Sox, and Yankees as his preferred destinations. Peavy was willing to accept a trade to the Cubs. These restrictions on the suitors may reduce the return.
- Firesale in Detroit: Magglio Ordonez, Jeremy Bonderman, Placido Polanco, Nate Robertson, Dontrelle Willis, Justin Verlander. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection system sees a weak AL Central in 2009, with the Tigers checking in at 78 wins. That level of performance might be enough to stave off a midseason fire sale, but if the club underperforms it might be appropriate to clean house. Verlander is the intriguing name. In January, ESPN's Jayson Stark talked to one AL exec who would not be surprised to see the young fireballer on the block.
- Pair of aces: Roy Halladay, Brandon Webb. Both ace starters are under contract for 2010 (Webb has a cheap club option). If the Blue Jays or D'Backs are in the tank, they'll have the deadline's hottest commodities. And they're more than rentals. Each pitcher would require a king's ransom. Neither starter has been made available...yet.
- Other Jays veterans: Scott Rolen, Vernon Wells, B.J. Ryan, Lyle Overbay. If the Blue Jays can't keep pace in the AL East, J.P. Ricciardi will have plenty of inventory aside from Halladay. Many of these contracts will be prohibitive, however.
- Marlins making more than the minimum: Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu, Jeremy Hermida. In Marlin-world, a $3-5MM salary makes you trade bait.
- Other possibilities: Nick Swisher, Garrett Atkins, Huston Street, Mike Cameron, Julio Lugo, Vicente Padilla, Kevin Millwood
Tim Dierkes follows the hot stove like no one else at MLB Trade Rumors and covers fantasy baseball at Roto Authority.com
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Could Detriot really start selling off guys?
It's not like their farm system is pushing guys to be traded. That prediction was at 78 wins? What would it be without 3 of those 6, 60 wins?
Assuming they are traded at the deadline, it would probably wouldn't cost the Tiger more than 10 wins, and they probably wouldn't trade all of them, so maybe 5 wins.
Could the Cardinals stop being little girls and start making moves?
Ummmm. Miguel Cabrera.
any chance the yanks revisit cameron before or near the deadline if a melky/gardner platoon doesnt work out?
Hmm.....Nobody will take Dontrelle Willis with that inflated contract. The guy had a couple of good years in the beginning but he looks like an overall bust. Magglio's contract is also extremely prohibitive in terms of a trade. Vernon Wells? Are you kidding? He's got a Jason Giambi sized-contract with something like 6 years left on it and half the talent. Even if he returns to form, he still isn't worth his salary. The Blue Jays overpaid by about 29 million for him. He's never been worth more than 13 mil per season ever, in my mind.
If the Marlins begin trading people it'll be a feeding frenzy. Cheap young talent? Who doesn't want that? but it begs the question- why aren't the Marlins contending with so much talent on their roster?
The rest is just too much to comment on.
I entirely agree with the list as Tim made it, but don't see any takers on Vernon Wells unless he comes out on fire. BJ Ryan may be the easiest to let go of the bunch and could make the difference for teams in the centrals like St-Louis, Chicago if they want Marmol back in the 7-8th inning role, or Cincinnati. The D-Backs, Dodgers, and Giants could also be looking for a closer if their in-house options fall through.
I'd add a couple of names to the list: newly signed Brian Roberts and Luke Scott if things look grim in Baltimore; Michael Young if Blalock looks healthy of if they decide to go with a young gun and switch Davis back to 3B; and Garret Atkins as well as Todd Helton who are very expandable should the Rockies not be in the chase. Ian Stewart and Jeff Baker are more than adequate replacements and the take would be substantial.
awww...nothing seems to be working out for the city of Detroit. I know baseball has been talking about aggressive geographical expansion, but the economics just don't make sense for a third-world market.
Scott yes, but Roberts no. Roberts is locked in.
The O's would probably look to move guys like Scott, Huff, and Wigginton.
Magglio Ordonez's contract isn't as prohibitive as people think--he has club options for 2010 and 2011 at $15 million for each season.
Of course, should he get 135 starts or 540 PAs this year, the option for 2010 becomes guaranteed for $18 million instead of $15 million, and 2011 becomes guaranteed as well(for $15 million). The same holds true if he has 280 starts or 1,080 PAs in 2008-09 combined.
So, it all depends....
On another note, I really think Hank Blalock is more tradeable at this point than Michael Young. Young is entering the 1st year of that 5-year extension he signed...2 years ago. Eek! I doubt many teams are going to want to take that on right now.
On the other hand, if Blalock can put up a decent half-season as a DH(and occasional 1B/3B), he has significant trade value, and then the Rangers can put one of their young catchers(Ramirez/Saltalamacchia/Teagarden) at DH instead. Davis can stay at 1B for now until Justin Smoak is ready.
Oooh, and there's also Frank Catalanotto(since we're talking about the Rangers), although I don't know how much trade value he has. But his 2010 option is unlikely to vest if he's a becnh guy. Unless he becomes the DH if they trade Blalock...heh. ;)
"He's never been worth more than 13 mil per season ever, in my mind."
Ha a centerfielder who plays gold glove defense hitting .280 with 25hrs? How many are out there that have had more then 1 season? Torii Hunter-19m, Carlos Beltran-18m, Grady Sizemore, BJ Upton, Granderson.
"They have plenty of offense with their pitching." Is that a Yogiism???
No it meant unlike in recent years they dont have to score 900runs to win.
They have one of the best staffs in baseball, so they have plenty of offense for this pitching staff.
have to believe the Yankees will be looking for a CFer....the players they have now will cause them to play the shuttle game. Damon can't play CF,Swisher dosen't to play there,Melky stinks and Gardner can't hit
No way the Giants would be looking for a closer...they have an ALLSTAR closer in Brian Wilson. They do however have valuable trade commodities in Randy Winn, Dave Roberts, Rich Aurilia and Bengie Molina. I see Winn and Molina definately being traded if the Giants don't contend in the NL West by the trade deadline. Those are both highly sought out veterans who can help contenders (ie. RedSox/Yanks/WhiteSox/Angels/Rays) down the stretch!!
Yankees dont need an elite offensive CF.
They have plenty of offense with their pitching.
You're making your mind up about Gardner after a month? Imagine if Boston did that with Pedroia.
Just because you're an all star closer doesnt mean you cant be replaced. era of over 4.50?
For the last time to anyone thinking it will happen, Roy Oswalt is not going anywhere. He has a no trade clause and have you ever heard of Drayton McClain? We're not going to trade a star pitcher with a below market contract. Our owner never says die to the season. The reason why we haven't traded everyone yet is because McClain orders Wade to stay competitive. We will never have a rebuilding project like we did in the early '90s. So if everyone would stop saying Oswalt is a trade candidate it would be greatly appreciated. No one will take Tejada and Lee has already said, if you'd research at all, that he is not going to waive his no trade clause. Ever. The only one who might be out of here is Valverde, but someone would have to step up before we did that.
Ugh. Every time someone brings up Oswalt's name we have to endure this exact same comment.
Then maybe people shouldn't bring it up? :)
Can you give any other evidence of Boras clients foregoing FA status? I would still say the popular belief is correct and that Madson is the outlier.
Unless you can come up w/ just ONE other example, please?
(I'm guessing you can't.)
Wilson is not getting replaced in SF and if he did, they have internal candidates...Affeldt/Howry/Romo/Taschner that they would turn too first.
you forgot Juan Piere
The Yankees also have a pretty decent first baseman in triple-A Juan Miranda. I thought he would get a decent shot before they signed Teixeira. Obviously now he is expandable.
Miranda's nothing more than a platoon partner for somebody. Not that he's no good, he'd be good in that role, but he wouldn't have a starting job anywhere in the majors. Thats why the Yankees traded for Swisher before they got Tex.
Yeah Robb and John Smoltz would never leave the Braves keep dreaming Houston is not the best place to play ball it is however the best place to have unfullfilled promises year after year.
SJJIM,
Since you're asking for JUST ONE other example of a Boras client who chose not to dive into free agency, look at Kyle Lohse re-signing with the Cardinals on the last day of the 2008 season, even though he would have been an free agent, and was coming off a career season (career high in wins, career low in ERA, missed his career mark in IP by one, and had his lowest WHIP since 2003).
True, Lohse was partially reacting to the nightmare offseason he'd had previously while a FA, but he does fit the mold of a Boras client who chose to stay with his team rather than test the FA waters.
Yeah sure Detroit is just gonna sell off Verlander at the trade deadline...Who wrote this shit? We have no other aces, no other options, we have 5 solid starters and all the sudden were gonna sell off Verlander? Were not that cheapass organization like Florida where were gonna sell all of our talent for no reason....plus Detroit has money, period. As long as we have Ilitch, we'll be keeping names like Verlander....morons.
That "cheapass organization" happens to be run very well. If you aren't going to win games or be in playoff contention or don't envision success until two or three years down the road, it makes sense to sell off guys like Verlander to a contender. That's what the Marlins do and it works.
Good call. Forgot that Detroit is recession-proof.
I don't think it has as much to do with the recession as much as it's the fact that if Detroit is to rebuild, Verlander is one of the few tradeable young players the have. Does anyone really want Gary Sheffield, Brandon Inge, or even Dontrelle Willis?
Verlander just became arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason and will only make $3.675 million this season--not exactly a huge burden to the team's payroll. But trading him could bring back a lot of talent in return.
Delmon Young. Although he isn't specifically a trade deadline candidate.
Just a personal thought on the Astros. They have one of the easiest first half schedules in all of baseball. 60 of their first 89 games (all star break) are against teams with sub 500 records from last year. Based on this alone, it stands to reason that they will not be far enough out of contention for Drayton to waive the white flag and trade off pieces. All they have to be is average and based on the schedule, they SHOULD be right there with the Wild Card pack come July.
http://blogs.chron.com/unofficialscorer/2009/02/the_stats_on_the_astros_crazy_1.html
I'd add a few Indians to the list.
One of Garko/Shoppach could easily be on the block. Garko if the Tribe decides to move Victor Martinez to 1B full-time, and Shoppach if they decide that Garko at 1B and Victor catching is better.
Matt Holliday to the yankees next year after his 1year in oakland... that would be bananas.. cuz even though hes a left fielder he can play center besides.. the whole yankee outfield is gone next year ... damon matsui nady and i think melky ... soooo next year will be a firesale for them in tha outfield considering their infield is sewn up til 2016
Matt Holliday is going to be a yankee.6yrs 120 mil
Well, Justin, leaving by FA is a bit different than being traded. Gammons brings it up every year, Rosenthal brings it up every year and it never ever happens. DM will never authorize Oswalt to be traded. Simple as that. I never said he wouldn't leave via FA, but if you're to believe Roy, he hang 'em up after his current contract is up.
holliday for swisher and miranda works for me.
wang for oswalt should do the trick. i hope i
leave colorado for new york. got it cashman.
i hate cold toronto. my friend burnett left for new york. i hope to join him. i would go for damon or matsui. i hope cashman reads this letter.
yankees give me money i hit ball i catch ball. sign me next year. a cheap contract works got it girardi
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