Cincinnati Reds: Spring Training Information

By Justin Inaz
Location: Ed Smith Stadium - Sarasota, FLA
Pitchers and Catchers Report: Feb. 13th
First Game: Feb. 25th
Schedule

Projected Opening Day Lineup

1. Willy Taveras (CF)
2. Jerry Hairston/Chris Dickerson (LF)
3. Brandon Phillips (2B)
4. Joey Votto (1B)
5. Jay Bruce (RF)
6. Edwin Encarnacion (3B)
7. Ramon Hernandez (C)
8. Alex Gonzalez (SS)

Projected Rotation
1. Edinson Volquez
2. Aaron Harang
3. Bronson Arroyo
4. Johnny Cueto
5. Daryl Thompson/Homer Bailey/Micah Owings/Ramon Ramirez/Matt Maloney

Projected Bullpen

Spare Parts: Mike Lincoln, Nick Masset, Josh Roenicke
Late Innings: David Weathers/Jared Burton/Arthur Rhodes/Bill Bray
Closer: Francisco Cordero
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Key Battles:

In their Sunset Season in Sarasota before moving to the Cactus League in 2010, the Reds have surprisingly few genuine battles this spring.  That's especially true given that this doesn't figure to be a particularly good team.  But there are a few interesting jobs at stake this spring, so let's take a look:

Left Field

This is probably the "biggest" one, at least from a fan's perspective.  LHB Chris Dickerson became an instant fan favorite last season with his outstanding late-season debut with the Reds.  Nevertheless, Dickerson probably outperformed his actual skillset (he's a fairly "old" prospect, will turn 27 in April, and his combined 2008 statistics are much better than his prior years would project), and he has a history of struggling against lefthanders.  The Reds signed a number of outfielders this offseason, including Willy Taveras (who will start in CF), OF Jonny Gomes, IF/OF Jerry Hairston, and OF Laynce Nix.  As a result, Dickerson may be fighting for a job. 

The most likely situation right now is that Dickerson will win a platoon job, paired with either Gomes or Hairston (if Alex Gonzalez is healthy).  But the Reds have a history of favoring other players over their own home-grown talent, so there are no guarantees here.  LHB Laynce Nix has been mentioned as another possible left-handed platoon player in left field, and could usurp Dickerson with a strong spring.

And if you want a really far-out scenario (i.e. really, really unlikely), the Reds' #1 pick Yonder Alonso has already been discussed as a reason to push the excellent Joey Votto to left field in the near future.  If Alonso has a Josh Hamilton-like spring training, there's a chance that this could happen before opening day...  Ok, it probably won't, but hey, it's spring!  Wild speculation is fair game here, right?

Shortstop

Alex Gonzalez missed all of last season with a stress fracture in his knee.  While recent reports have mostly been quite positive, I also haven't heard that he's 100% healthy yet either--just that tests have been "very encouraging."  I feel like we've been hearing that since last April.  And even if he does come back, it's hard to know what we'll get.  Leg problems don't tend to have positive effects on one's range, and fielding is the only thing that Gonzalez has ever really done well.  He'll also be 32 this year, so he's getting older and I think we can legitimately question how well he'll hit after not seeing major league pitching for a year.

If it turns out that Gonzalez isn't healthy or just isn't qualified to play baseball anymore, shortstop will likely be shared between Jerry Hairston and Jeff Keppinger once again (whoever hits early may take the job).  That means that what happens at shortstop may directly influence who is playing in left field.

The 5th rotation slot

Remarkably, this Reds team has four established starters set to go this season.  Assuming all are healthy--and I think (hope?) that Harang's performance over the last month of last season verified that whatever was bothering him mid-season is resolved--the only rotation slot that's open for battle is the #5 man.  And it's about as wide open as you'll find.  Micah Owings would seem to be the leading candidate given his experience, but Daryl Thompson and the struggling-but-still-a-prospect Homer Bailey have a very good shot at the job as well.  Fringe candidates include Matt Maloney, Ramon Ramirez, and maybe even Sam Lecure.  Now, Lecure's no Johnny Cueto, but I had Cueto as a fringe candidate last year and he won the job handily.  So you never know.

Spare Parts in the Bullpen

For what figures to be a fairly mediocre team, the bullpen is also pretty well set.  The closer is the wild but effective (and overpaid) Francisco Cordero, set up by some combination of RHP David Weathers, RHP Jared Burton, LHP Arthur Rhodes, and LHP Bill Bray.  For my money, Burton and Bray should be used more than the other two, but I'd expect to see Weathers and Rhodes in either the 7th or 8th innings, depending on the situation.

Mike Lincoln is also a lock for middle relief given his contract extension, which leaves one slot (assuming 12 pitchers) up for grabs between hard-thrower Josh Roenicke, Nick Masset (acquired in the Griffey deal), screwballer Danny Herrera, and a handful of others.

What to expect:

Despite prognostications about Dusty Baker's proclivity to favor veterans over youngsters, I saw little evidence of this last season.  Votto quickly earned his starting job (despite not owning it as he should have at the start of the season), Edwin Encarnacion never was threatened with playing time, and once Jay Bruce arrived mid-summer he was always a starter despite struggling badly at times.  If a kid has talent, my experience is that Dusty will let him play.  For that reason, I think that Homer Bailey may actually have a shot at the rotation despite how badly he's struggled and despite the experienced and still young Micah Owings seemingly having the advantrage.

Dickerson may be the one exception, however, because his talent probably isn't all that remarkable.  And so pitting him against players like Jerry Hairston or Jonny Gomes might mean that Dickerson could come out of the dust as a bench player.  That might be his best use to a lot of clubs, but I'd like to see what he can do in at least a platoon role this year.  At the minimum, he'll provide plus defense in a corner slot, walk at a good clip, and show a little bit of power.  Whether he strikes out 200 times is another question...

One thing I have noticed about Dusty, however, is that he seems to try to fit players into stereotypes.  The fast Corey Patterson as a leadoff guy is a perfect example (this year it will be Willy Taveras).  So if Baker decides that a pitcher is a "setup guy" or a "long-relief guy," he may stay in that role for much of the season no matter what his performance.  Jeremy Affeldt was one the Reds' best bullpen pitchers last season, for example, but perhaps because of his history as a starter he was often used as a long-reliever and rarely placed in a high-leverage situation.

Finally, it would not be surprising for another player or two to appear out of nowhere and contend for a job.  Jacque Jones and Daryle Ward were both recently signed to minor league deals with a shot at making the team, and with a hot spring Jones, at least, might just compete for that left field job.  And with the glut of unsigned bargain-valued free agents still on the market, it seems likely that some cheap players could show up, take advantage of the Reds' weak starting lineup, and earn some playing time.  That said, the Reds have made it clear that they are also not intending to spend much more money this offseason on account of the economy-based drop in revenues, so I wouldn't expect someone like Bobby Abreu to show up wearing white and red either.

As for the season, this is a team that will have to win with pitching and defense, because the offense will probably suck.  That's what the front office has been selling, and they have some reason for this.  Assuming Gonzalez is healthy, the only noticably sub-par defensive starter right now is Edwin Encarnacion, though there are some concerns about catcher and CF.  The bullpen looks pretty solid (I'm especially high on Burton and Bray), and the rotation might end up being the best in the division, with progress by Cueto, continued excellence from Volquez, and solidness from Harang and Arroyo.  But even so, overcoming an offensive deficit like they are likely to have will be difficult unless Jay Bruce becomes a god and other hitters perform better than expected.  I'd set the best reasonable goal for this team as a 0.500 season, with a 70-something win season being the most likely outcome.  Tough time to be a Reds fan. 

Justin is a life-long (though increasingly bitter) Reds fan and card-carrying stathead. He writes whenever he can find the time at On Baseball and the Reds.